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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Is the Indian Economy Heading Back to 1991?


Twenty years ago, the current Prime Minister and then finance minister, Sh. Manmohan Singh explained the urgency of implementing economic reforms in his historic budget speech.

In the last of his historic speech he told the house"Sir, I do not minimise the difficulties that lie ahead on the long and arduous journey on which we have embarked. But as Victor Hugo once said 'no power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come'. I suggest to this August House that the emergence of India as a major economic power in the world happens to be one such idea. Let the whole world hear it loud and clear. India is now wide awake. We shall prevail. We shall overcome."

At the time, India was nearly bankrupt. The government was close to default, its central bank had refused new credit. India's foreign exchange reserves was at $1.2 billion in January 1991 and depleted by half by June, barely enough to last for roughly 3 weeks of essential imports. India was only weeks way from defaulting on its external balance of payment obligations.

The then government immediate response was to secure an emergncy loan of $2.2 billion from the Internation Monetary Fund (IMF) by pledging 67  tons of India's gold reserves as collateral. The then governemnt had pledged the country's almost entire gold reserves to different agencies to overcome from this situation.

At the time (1990-91), India's Gross Fiscal Deficit was rose to 8.4% of GDP. Since, these dificits had to be met by borrowings, the internal debt of the government accumulated rapidly and rose to 53% of GDP at the end of 1990-91.

But reforms proposed by Mr. Manmohan Singh in 1991 got India out of that mess and eventually put on to a path of GDP growth of 8% and plus.

But in recent months, Indian economic situation is again getting worse and looking worsen than 1991, if we look closer on the data.

The Current Account Deficit is at 4.3% of GDP in the 3rd Quarter of 2011-12, much higher in comparison of 2.5% of GDP in 1991. This is due to high rate if import in comparison to much lower rate of export.

The Fiscal Deficit in 1991 was around 7% and now it is ruling at 5.9% in 2012. And, the Short-term Debt is at 23.3% of GDP in 2012, much more than 10.2% in 1991.

The figures are really quite disturbing and the situation looking more threatening because of the helplessness and lack of will power of Central Government.

Hope! the situation won't be so bad and India soon back on to the track of high growth rate.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

भ्रष्टाचार की सरकार

आज केंद्र में आम जनता की सरकार  नहीं है जो आम जनता की ज़रूरतों की ओर ध्यान  दे महंगाई को नियंत्रित करे । बल्कि आजकल इसका समय भ्रष्टाचार के नित नए-नए  तरीके इजाद करने में बीतता है ।कभी 2G-Spectrum के रूप में कभी commonwealth game के रूप में, कभी आदर्श सोसाइटी घोटाले के रूप में, और कभी  ISRO को लेकर उठता विवाद। हर नया घोटाला एक नया रिकॉर्ड बनता हुआ । और हमारा सत्ता पक्ष ये कहकर अपना पल्ला झाड़ना  चाहता है की ये सब गठबंधन की मजबूरियां हैं । एक लोकतान्त्रिक देश में ये कितने शर्म की बात है की भ्रष्टाचार को दूर कर उस पर नियंत्रण लगाने की जगह आप  इसे गठबंधन की मजबूरियां बता कर अपनी जिम्मेदारियों से बचना चाहते हैं ।हमारे देश का शायद  ही  कोई प्रधानमंत्री इतना लाचार इतना कमज़ोर साबित हुआ हो। आज जनता को ये फैसला करना है की क्या वो ऐसी निक्कमी सरकार चाहती है जिसके मुखिया (PM) हर नए घोटाले के बाद अपने हाथ खड़े कर देते हैं । तथा जनता को जागरूक  बनाने वाली हर कोशिश  को कुचलने को तैयार बैठी रहती है, चाहे वो बाबा रामदेव के शिविर पर आधी रात को पुलिस  का लाठीचार्ज  हो या फिर अन्ना के आन्दोलन  को बदनाम  करने की कोशिश । अब जनता की बारी है की वो इस  निकम्मी सरकार को करारा जवाब दे और भविष्य में होने वाले चुनाव  में अपने वोट की ताकत  दिखाये ।